2024 Data shows +1.6°C as the average of daily ground level temperature anomalies above preindustrial. Since 2023 was +1.5°C while 2021 and 2022 were both below +1.2°C I've added the 5 year rolling average as a trend line to graph 1. This is currently below +1.4°C.
This data is from Copernicus because it is the quickest publisher of data that I know of. Their graph is the second published here. It shows that the temperature increase caused by El Nino mid 2023 did not fade away mid 2024 after El Nino was over. We appear to be stuck at a new higher range of temperatures.
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Note that the Copernicus data has a baseline of 1991-2020 so in order to adjust for levels above preindustrial 1850-1900 I've adjusted by +0.88°C for graph 1.
2023/24 temperatures shouldn't have increased that much. ENSO shows how strong El Nino warming (red) and La Nina cooling (blue) were. As we can see, the most recent El Nino wasn't very strong, but it resulted in record high temperatures that haven't reduced at all even though La Nina has sort of started. This looks more and more like a step change in global overheating. I wouldn't be surprised if we never drop below +1.5C ever again.
