Sunday 21 January 2024

Net Zero Angers Me

Net Zero Emissions is mostly used by people who haven't got a clue as to what it is and what it will do, but they use it like it is some sort of magic that will fix this climate chaos. So here are some vital clarifications.

Emissions are a mix of all sorts of mostly gases, but the only one that really matters is carbon dioxide. Methane is second on the list but a long way back as it is growing at a much slower rate and there is a massively less of it. So carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels and forests is what matters.



Then we have Net Zero vs Neutrality. These are both the same globally, but for each country Net Zero ignores exported emissions. Neutrality includes all those emissions produced when manufacturing imported goods, Net Zero doesn't. So for the rich and powerful nations Net Zero allows them to look better when actually doing worse. Closing down the Port Talbot steel furnaces and replacing that steel with imports is a classic example. Imported steel will still cause emissions from foreign furnaces, plus emissions from transporting the steel to the UK. Net Zero emissions goes down for the UK while emissions Neutrality goes up. UK politicians don't mind that global emissions have been increased because UK Net Zero emissions have fallen: a political trick.

The other trick is to pretend that achieving Net Zero requires difficult and expensive human run capture of atmospheric carbon dioxide. It doesn't. Human activity has increased carbon dioxide levels from about 280 ppm to 420 ppm. This is so different from the preindustrial stable levels that carbon dioxide is being naturally sequestered at a far greater rate. This extra removal amounts to about half the emissions caused by human activity. In other words, the natural world by storing extra carbon dioxide in the oceans and slightly increased plant growth is doing half the job of reaching Zero emissions, never mind Net Zero. Net Zero can be reached by cutting global emissions in half. If we go further than half then we move into Net Negative territory and start reducing levels of carbon dioxide, which reduces temperatures and starts to fix the climate crisis.

And in case you haven't noticed, global Net Zero only balances what goes up with what comes down, so what is already up there stays up there. In other words achieving Net Zero globally keeps all that increased temperature and climate chaos in place. It doesn't fix anything. It only stops it from getting any worse. Which is why the world needs Global Net Negative emissions.